Mexico is on observe to turn out to be Latin America’s main LNG re-exporter when it comes to regasification capability, whereas the area as an entire might turn out to be a web liquefied pure gasoline exporter, in accordance with Poten and Companions.
The shipbroker and consulting agency’s Sergio Chapa, senior LNG analyst, offered an outline of the regional LNG stability throughout a webinar on Wednesday.
Mexico has three liquefaction initiatives with a mixed capability of seven.5 million metric tons/yr (mmty) at the moment underneath development, whereas one other eight initiatives totaling 50.2 mmty are proposed. Builders principally plan to re-export gasoline imported through pipeline from the US.
[Driving Demand: How have skyrocketing global natural gas prices pushed LNG projects forward in Mexico and across Latin America? Tune into the Hub & Flow podcast to find out.]
Mexico is “one of many stars of the LNG trade in Latin America,” Chapa mentioned. Previously a serious LNG importer, Mexico now receives primarily all of its gasoline by pipelines from its neighbor to the north, following an enormous buildout of cross-border infrastructure over the past decade.
As for the area at massive, “Latin America might turn out to be a web LNG exporter [by 2030] if the vast majority of proposed initiatives attain” remaining funding choice or FID, Chapa mentioned.
The area’s regasification capability at the moment stands at 72 million mmty, versus liquefaction capability of 19.5 mmty, although each these numbers are poised to extend within the close to future.
The liquefaction determine has extra upside potential, Chapa famous, though the potential eventualities differ broadly.
Poten and Companions has tallied 102 mmty of liquefaction capability proposed at the moment within the area, versus 86 mmty of regasification capability. The “excessive” situation modeled by the agency envisions all of those initiatives coming to fruition, Chapa defined.
Poten and Companions additionally modeled a medium situation by which solely a portion of the liquefaction capability proposed in Mexico and Argentina comes on-line. On this second situation, the area’s liquefaction capability would attain 50 mmty, whereas the low situation would see it hit 27 mmty.
Simply two nations within the area, Peru and Trinidad & Tobago, at the moment export LNG. Trinidad is the chief by far with present export capability of round 15 mmty, whereas Peru boasts 4.5 mmty.
Mexico is poised to turn out to be the third this summer season upon completion of a 1.4 mmty offshore liquefaction unit by New Fortress Power Inc.
In Argentina, state oil firm YPF SA is aiming to sanction a 25 mmty liquefaction terminal by the top of the yr.
Quite a few elements might affect the tempo and extent of liquefaction capability progress in Latin America, Chapa mentioned.
For instance, Argentina, house to the ascendant Vaca Muerta Shale formation, might select to prioritize pipeline exports to neighbors comparable to Brazil and Chile over LNG exports, Chapa mentioned.
Trinidad, in the meantime, will want a brand new supply of feed gasoline to exchange its personal declining reserves.
The proposed Mexico initiatives, for his or her half, are reliant on approvals from the U.S. Division of Power to re-export gasoline to non-free commerce settlement companions, Chapa highlighted.
As for Latin America’s import image, Brazil is prone to stay the area’s largest LNG vacation spot by 2030, although its demand can swing wildly yr to yr, relying on hydroelectric reservoir ranges.
LNG demand from Argentina and Chile is also prone to drop as Vaca Muerta gasoline manufacturing will increase, Chapa mentioned.
South America additionally has three floating regasification and storage unit import terminals underneath development totaling 10 mmty. Two are in Brazil and one is in Chile.
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