Latin American LNG imports thus far this 12 months haven’t modified in comparison with final 12 months as drops in Brazil imports are being offset by good points elsewhere.
From Jan. 1 by way of to Aug. 29, Latin American imports of liquefied pure gasoline have been 8.42 million tons (Mt), in comparison with 8.3 Mt in the identical interval final 12 months, in accordance with information from Kpler.
“We’ve got seen a major decline in Brazilian LNG imports resulting from sturdy hydropower reservoir ranges which has lowered the decision on gas-fired energy crops,” Kpler senior analyst Laura Web page informed NGI’s Mexico GPI.
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“Nonetheless, that quantity has been offset by rising deliveries into Caribbean nations on the again of oil-to-gas gas switching within the energy sector, El Salvador ramping up LNG imports after importing its first ever cargo in April 2022 and Colombia starting to extend LNG imports amid low hydropower reservoirs.”
Brazil’s imports of LNG are down considerably thus far in 2023, to 540,000 tons, in comparison with 1.65 Mt in the identical interval final 12 months. Colombia’s imports are 4 occasions larger in comparison with final 12 months, however nonetheless marginal at 200,000 tons. Jamaica noticed an vital bounce of 420,000 tons, reaching 1.12 Mt, in accordance with Kpler.
Mexico LNG imports in the meantime rose to 480,000 tons, from 280,000 tons. The nation now depends principally on pipeline imports from the USA to fulfill its rising pure gasoline demand.
“Latin America is a seasonal LNG importer and as a number of the bigger importers – Argentina, Chile, Brazil – at the moment are popping out of the height winter season, we anticipate LNG imports into the area to drop in September and stay weak by way of the northern hemisphere winter season,” Web page stated.
“In consequence, we don’t anticipate Latin America to be a significant competitors for Europe over the approaching months.”
Altering Traits
Chile thus far this 12 months has been the highest LNG importer in Latin America because it continues to section out coal from its power combine. Pure gasoline was the highest gas supply in electrical energy manufacturing in the course of the first half of the 12 months, accounting for 26% of technology, in accordance with statistics from commerce group Generadoras de Chile.
Chilean LNG imports rose to 2.1 Mt year-to-date, from 1.99 Mt.
Argentina’s LNG imports additionally rose to 1.74 Mt, from 1.66 Mt.
However this development is ready to alter with the Nestór Kirchner pipeline now on-line, offering Buenos Aires extra pure gasoline from the enormous Vaca Muerta shale deposit.
“In Argentina, LNG imports will lower considerably,” Alvaro Rios, the managing companion of consultancy Gasoline Power Latin America, informed NGI’s Mexico GPI.
“We are going to see much less volumes now that the Néstor Kirchner pipeline is accomplished,” Rios stated. With movement reversal on the Transportadora de Gasoline del Norte (TGN) system permitting for Vaca Muerta pure gasoline to succeed in northern Argentina, “the nation will import much less and fewer. It’d grow to be an exporter.”
Chile can be going to make use of much less LNG, Rios stated. “Argentina exports are presently going to central Chile. This [Southern Cone] summer season you may see the primary volumes in northern Argentina going to northern Chile with the reversal of TGN. So small volumes will get to northern Chile by way of pipeline.”
Rios nevertheless added that “seasonality in Brazil stays the principle theme. With three extra regas terminals being developed, the development for LNG is to go up in Brazil.”
He stated one other import terminal may additionally come on-line in Colombia, which makes use of pure gasoline principally as backup when rainfall is low. However, “Colombia has critical issues with provide. These two terminals could be a cause to see extra LNG in Colombia.”
He additionally thinks Bolivia, lengthy the area’s predominant pure gasoline provider, will begin importing volumes beginning in 2030, most certainly from Argentina.
General, the area ought to see extra want for LNG.
Wooden Mackenzie predicts that pure gasoline demand in Latin America will enhance by a median of 1.4% yearly over the following decade, stabilizing at round 25 Bcf/d. However gasoline provide is anticipated to say no at a fee of 5.6% in that timeframe. Wooden Mackenzie analysts suppose that yet-to-find sources may stabilize Latin American provide at about 15 Bcf/d, with the suitable insurance policies in place.
This may suggest better wants for LNG imports, which can be consistent with the worldwide image.
Within the latest International Outlook to 2050 revealed by ExxonMobil, researchers stated they noticed international pure gasoline demand rising by 20% by 2050. Notably, worldwide LNG exports are forecast to “meet about 50% of the expansion in gasoline demand to 2050.”
Researchers stated that in 2021, international LNG commerce met about 10% of worldwide pure gasoline demand. By 2050, the liquefied pure gasoline commerce is prone to practically double, with the Asia Pacific area set to soak up about 85% of the expansion over the interval.
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