In response to knowledge from the Institute for Vitality Economics and Monetary Evaluation (IEEFA), the hole between Europe’s LNG capability and demand continues to widen. Europe has added six new LNG terminals in 2023, plus a beforehand mothballed terminal and a brand new FSRU that’s docked however not but operational, whereas LNG imports have flattened and gasoline consumption retains declining.
LNG import capability is about to achieve 406 billion m3 in 2030, a rise of 143 billion m3 from 2021 ranges, whereas gasoline consumption is forecast to fall to round 400 billion m3 because the continent pushes forward with gasoline demand discount insurance policies.
The utilisation fee of Europe’s LNG terminals averaged 58% between January – September 2023. Within the face of declining European gasoline consumption, it raises questions as as to whether Europe must construct extra LNG infrastructure by 2030.
“The decline in gasoline demand is difficult the narrative that Europe wants extra LNG infrastructure to achieve its power safety targets. The information is exhibiting that we don’t,” stated Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an IEEFA Vitality Analyst. “Regardless of vital progress in direction of decreasing gasoline consumption, nations in Europe threat buying and selling a reliance on Russian pipelines for a redundant LNG system that additional exposes the continent to risky costs.”
Whereas European LNG imports from January – September 2022 elevated by 62% compared with the identical interval in 2021, LNG imports in 2023 have flattened, rising simply 4% y/y. In the meantime, the EU has met its winter gasoline storage targets forward of schedule.
The EU alone spent €41 billion on LNG imports between January and July 2023, with the US (€17.2 billion), Russia (€5.5 billion), and Qatar (€5.4 billion) the most important beneficiaries.
As of September 2023, the EU, Türkiye, and the UK had imported a complete of 125 billion m3 of LNG.
European imports of Russian LNG between January – September 2023 remained regular in comparison with the identical interval in 2022. High-line figures masks nationwide variations, with Spain and Belgium rising their LNG imports by 50% in 2023 in comparison with the earlier yr. Terminals in Belgium and France additionally proceed transhipping Russian LNG volumes from the Yamal undertaking.
This replace is a part of IEEFA’s European LNG Tracker, a publicly obtainable interactive knowledge set to visualise Europe’s LNG infrastructure, demand and capability outlook, and import and export flows.
Learn the article on-line at: https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/01112023/ieefa-europes-lng-capacity-buildout-outpaces-demand/