Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), bioenergy and hydrogen are set to play only a small part in cleaning up global emissions, according to research firm Rystad Energy.
In a comprehensive global energy scenario report, it found decarbonising and growing the power sector through nuclear and established renewables will likely account for 52% of reductions and electrification of “almost everything” will provide 43%.
“The final 5% is achieved by tackling residual emissions in hard-to-abate sectors through CCUS, hydrogen, and bioenergy,” it notes.
“These are referenced in a rising number of national determined contributions, and projects are underway, but deployment remains modest compared to renewables and electrification. Long-term success depends on scaling these technologies far beyond their current footprint.”
It forecasts hydrogen supply outlook now points to around 34 million tonnes by 2035, which is shaped by “financial viability rather than ambition”. Current demand of roughly 105 million tonnes remains dominated by grey hydrogen in refining and ammonia, and early clean hydrogen volumes are largely directed towards these legacy sectors.
Offtake visibility and regulatory pressure make them the most stable markets, while new uses, such as green steel and shipping, remain smaller.
“The sector is consolidating around projects that can reach final investment decisions, as electrolyser supply chains, subsidies and permitting mature,” it states.
Source: Rystad Energy
The carbon capture pipeline is on track to reach about 200 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030, around four times the 2024 level, but just 40% of total announced volumes. Developers are prioritising projects with secured storage, transport access and regulatory clarity.
“Overall the market for clean hydrogen and CCUS is shifting from counting announcements to focusing on delivering capacity, marking a more sustainable phase of growth defined by execution quality and credible delivery,” it notes.
As hydrogen and electrofuels (e-fuels) remain costly, supply constrained and infrastructure heavy, biofuels offer a pragmatic first step for the maritime and aviation sectors, providing mostly drop-in compatibility and immediate carbon reductions, said Rystad.
Risked total announced production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will scale from about 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to over 630,000 bpd by 2030, but these volumes are a tiny fraction of the aviation fuel market. Competitive pricing is currently a major impediment to scaling SAF.
Green fuels and feedstocks, including hydrogen, ammonia, sustainable fuels and carbon sequestration, will be responsible for over 25% of emissions reductions in Asia-Pacific by 2050, according to a new report from DNV.